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08/30/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The revolving door to the president's office at the National Hockey League Players' Association is once again in motion and the punditocracy is foaming with rumors that former baseball players' union boss Don Fehr will soon be shuttling into the wood-paneled inner sanctum.
Fehr has been acting as an unpaid adviser to the NHLPA for about a year after fighting baseball owners for 26 years - an often tumultuous tenure that included five collective bargaining agreements and one strike, in 1994 (for which Montreal Expos fans will never forgive the union).
Fehr can be as hard-line about not having a salary cap as Stephen Harper is on scrapping the long-form census. The New York Yankees 2010 payroll is $206.3 million. We're not sure what the Prime Minister's salary is since all stats are just a bunch of damn lies, anyway.
But back to pucks.
It seems the NHLPA, if it hires Fehr as its new president, is signaling that it is spoiling for a fight. I think the union should think twice before dropping the gloves with owners again.
First, players haven't exactly had to hold bake sales to pay their bills following the introduction of the salary cap before the 2005-06 season. In fact, the salary floor for this season is more than the salary cap of a few years ago, based on increased league revenues, but it may not be an ever- expanding pie.
After all, there was a worldwide financial meltdown between the last collective bargaining agreement, in July 2005, and its expiration date, in September 2012.
We're still recovering from one recession and, if U.S. housing foreclosure and unemployment stats are any indicator - patience, Mr. Harper! - we could be lurching toward another. It's the new normal and it's not pretty, especially if you're in a business that relies on consumers with discretionary spending money.
Sure, there are some Flyers fans who will forgo rent in order to buy tickets, but that's not the rule. With the exception of Toronto, where people eagerly surrender their wallets, credit cards and ATM PINs in exchange for an inferior product, those with less discretionary spending may cut back on luxuries like professional hockey.
With a salary cap already in place and the owners not about to surrender it, the hiring of Fehr, if it happens, will be an ideological move to fight over a few million here and a few million there, the pro sports equivalent of table scraps.
Sometimes, timing is everything and, if you support the NHLPA, the time to hire Fehr would have been in 2005, before the owners watched the players cave to the cap.
Bizarrely, whoever is the next president may find him/herself in the odd position of helping owners circumvent the CBA.
We're thinking here of the Ilya Kovalchuk case. The league rejected the 17- year, $102-million pact as a way of getting around the salary cap by amortizing the annual cap hit over a long period. The owners want the best labor for the cheapest price, so they did some creative math. The union wants job security for its members and didn't put up a whisper of protest against the Kovalchuk deal. If the Kovalchuk deal would have stood and thereby lowered average annual salaries in the process, shouldn't the NHLPA have come out against it, too?
Should a union stand by as management engineers contracts that lower the average salary of members when it comes time for them to negotiate?
If so, what's the point of having a union?
<< First-place Rangers, Royals square off in KC
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The first-place Texas Rangers can get their road record to
.500 and maintain a stranglehold on the American League's West Division
tonight, when they visit the Kansas City Royals in the opener of a three-game
series
<< Rays host Jays in series opener at the Trop
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Youngster Wade Davis makes his second start since returning
from the disabled list tonight, when the Tampa Bay Rays host the Toronto Blue
Jays in the opener of a three-game home series at Tropicana Field.
A soon-to-be 25
<< Nats hand ball to Marquis in Florida
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Despite pitching well over his last two starts, Nationals
hurler Jason Marquis is still searching for his first victory in nearly a
year. Unfortunately, tonight's opponent, the Marlins, have given him issues
over th
<< Pettitte's health the key to the Yankees repeating
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - If the New York Yankees hope to win a second
straight world championship they'll need a healthy and productive Andy Pettitte
on the mound come October. Before the 38-year old lefty went down with a
strained groin
Walcott putting World Cup snub behind him >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The biggest decisions most 16-year-old
boys have to make involve a choice of which car to buy, which girl to ask to
the dance, or what their Facebook status will be.
But Theo Walcott was not your typic
Boston downs Philadelphia to edge closer to playoff berth >>
West Chester, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Boston Breakers closed the gap on the
Philadelphia Independence in the race for second place in the Women's
Professional Soccer table with a 2-1 comeback win at John A. Farrell Stadium
on Sund
Arena to extend schedule to 18 games >>
Tulsa, OK (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Arena Football League will extend its
regular-season schedule from 16 to 18 games next season.
A 16-game schedule had been in effect since 2003.
"There has never been a better time for the Aren
Van Persie suffers minor ankle injury >>
London, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Arsenal and Netherlands striker Robin van
Persie is set to miss a few weeks because of an ankle injury, according to the
Dutch football federation.
Van Persie missed five months last season because of
Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?
I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.
There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.
Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.
For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.
A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.
The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.
Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.
So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.
Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.
“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.
Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.
“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.
It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.
Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.
The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.
“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.
“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”
Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.
The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.
“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”
Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?
“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.
BILLS (+10) at Steelers SPORTSBOOK LINES
It's impossible to gauge how a team will react after something like the Steve Everett situation, and it probably doesn't matter. That being said, the Bills are going to lose several games this year where they keep things close but fall short in the end to superior teams. Ben Roethlisberger and company could have a field day against Buffalo's decimated defense, but I like the Bills to cover.
BENGALS (-7) at Browns SPORTSBOOK LINES
All you can ask out of your NFL team is that it has a plan. You may not always agree with it as a fan, but as long as it appears the organization is going in some sort of direction, you have to go with it. Which brings us to the Cleveland Browns. You flip a coin to determine whether Chuck Frye or Derek Anderson should start the preseason opener. You start Frye in Week 1, but pull him in the first half. And then you deal him to the Seahawks for a sixth-round pick? Hmm... the Bengals could get six turnovers again this week.
COLTS (-7) at Titans SPORTSBOOK LINES
Tennessee signed ex-Colts cornerback Nick Harper in the offseason so that should help slow down Peyton Manning. Just ask Jason David and the Saints. Oh wait... One of these weeks, I'm going to learn to not pick against Tennessee, which has won seven of its last eight games. But it's not happening against Indy.
TEXANS (+6.5) at Panthers SPORTSBOOK LINES
Houston's Mario Williams, the first pick in the '06 draft, has more touchdowns than Reggie Bush after one week. Somehow I don't see that lasting. Meanwhile, Carolina bottled up what was expected to be a pretty high-octane offense in St. Louis in Week 1. Could this be the Panthers' defense everyone expected last year? Maybe. This feels like a 20-16 Carolina win.
RAMS (-3) vs. 49ers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Absolutely love this game. Everyone's favorite pick for this year's surprise team -- the 49ers -- laid an egg on Monday night (not that anyone was watching with the game ending in the middle of the night for those of us on the East Coast). St. Louis wasn't much better, delivering a lackluster effort against the Panthers that included two Steven Jackson fumbles and panic from his fantasy owners. Jackson rebounds this week, and the Rams get their first win.
PACKERS (+1.5) at Giants SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Do you really trust this guy to win an NFL game if Eli Manning can't go? I say no. I'd feel alot better about this Packers team if it had any semblance of a running game, but I still think Green Bay's defense is good enough to give it a 2-0 start.
JAGUARS (-10) vs. Falcons SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Does it scare me to pick Jacksonville to cover a double-digit spread after it scored just 10 points last week against the Titans? Absolutely. But can I bring myself to pick Atlanta under any circumstances? No. Check out this poll on ajc.com. It asks what Atlanta's most urgent deficiency is: offense, defense, specials teams or all of the above. "All of the above" has 57 percent of the votes. Ouch.
SAINTS (-3) at Buccaneers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
I'm picking way too many road teams this week. Oh well. New Orleans has had some time to reflect on its lackluster showing in the opener, and the Buccanneers just aren't a very good football team. Anyone else surprised Tampa Bay hasn't made a move to sign Byron Leftwich? I thought that's what they do.
VIKINGS (+3) at Lions SPORTS BETTING LINES
Run the ball and stop the run. Minnesota can do both, and that will keep them in a lot of games this season. Even though it was only one week, Adrian Peterson looks like he was a steal at No. 7 in last year's draft. Not only will he produce, but Peterson delivers excitement to what otherwise would be one of the league's most boring teams.
DOLPHINS (+3.5) vs. Cowboys SPORTS BETTING LINES
Lost in the Tony Romo lovefest is just how bad the Cowboys' defense was last week. I know they're banged up, but Dallas' 'D' allowed 438 yards to the Giants' offense, and backup running back Derrick Ward averaged 6.8 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Cam Cameron's decision to split carries between Ronnie Brown and Jesse Chatman sounds about as can't-miss as Larry David's plan to show up to Marty Funkhouser's party a night late. Still, gotta go with Miami to cover at home.
SEAHAWKS (-2.5) at Cardinals SPORTS BETTING LINES
I'm probably missing something, but this game seems too easy. Arizona blew Monday night's game against the 49ers in typical Cardinals fashion, and the Seahawks beat Tampa Bay by two touchdowns. Love Seattle in this one.
BRONCOS (-9.5) vs. Raiders SPORTS BETTING LINES
Special teams was a major story line in Week 1. Take a look at the Broncos. They had to rush on to the field to get a Jason Elam field goal as time expired against the Bills. Denver drove into Buffalo territory on eight of 10 drives but came away with just a pair of field goals and a touchdown. Look for more scoring from the Broncos this week against an Oakland defense that gave up 36 points to Detroit in Week 1.
BEARS (-12) vs. Chiefs SPORTS BETTING LINES
Everyone talks about Rex Grossman when dissecting the Bears' offense, but Chicago's quarterback got no help in last week's loss to the Chargers. Meanwhile, Kansas City confirmed what we all thought while watching Hard Knocks: The Chiefs are going to stink this year. It could be a rough first month for Larry Johnson fantasy owners. Kansas City's RB was limited to 43 yards on 10 carries in Week 1, and the Chiefs face the Bears, Vikings and Chargers the next three weeks, all formidable run defenses.
RAVENS (-10) vs. Jets SPORTS BETTING LINES
A big dose of Willis McGahee and a usual sound defensive effort will give the Ravens their first win. According to Football Outsiders, no team in the NFL rushed only three defenders on pass plays last year more than the Jets. And according to my special Jets correspondent Ben Stauber, New York did the same in Week 1. Whoever starts at quarterback for the Ravens should have all day to throw.
PATRIOTS (-3) vs. Chargers
Friends and I were discussing how Bill Belichick goes about paying his $500,000 fine for cheating. Does he just write one check to the NFL? Do you need some sort of clearance to make such a monstrous financial transaction? I guess I shouldn't complain about the security deposit I have to put down on my new apartment. Anyway, two of the league's best teams square off in what should be a good one Sunday night. The Patriots always respond well just when you think they're in trouble. And their offensive attack was the story in Week 1.
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting.
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